One loop from underwriting to outcome.
Capital Refinery carries the investment decision forward. Every IC approval lands in a structured record that holds its thesis, its assumptions, and the conditions it depends on. Every operator update tests whether those conditions still hold. The moment they don't, the team finds out — with the time still left to act.
Five stages, one record.
Each stage hands the investment record to the next without losing context. The same thesis that closed the deal is the thesis the platform tests against in year three.
- 01 / 05
Underwrite
Deterministic-first parsing. Not a chat window over your files.
CIMs, financials, and credit agreements are parsed into a structured investment record. A three-pass extraction kernel — regex sweepers, deterministic constructors, and a thin local LLM adjudication layer — produces every figure with a candidate ID and a provenance trail back to the page it came from. The record is decisionable, not a search index.
- 02 / 05
Decide
The IC memo binds the thesis.
When IC approves, the decision is locked with its thesis, its key assumptions, and the conditions those assumptions depend on. The memo is not a slide deck headed to a shared drive. It is a structured record the platform can test against later — and re-test continuously, against every operator update that comes in afterward.
- 03 / 05
Operate
Operator data flows back into the same record.
Accounting feeds, KPIs, covenants, and operator narrative are pulled in continuously. Every datum is mapped to the assumption it tests. The connection between the entry assumption and the live operator number is not a quarterly reconciliation exercise — it is the data model.
- 04 / 05
Stress
Scenario shocks propagate live across the position.
Shock packs, Monte Carlo scenarios, breach probability, and time-to-consequence ranking run on the live record — not on a quarterly snapshot. The team sees, on the positions they actually hold, how much room is left before a covenant breach or a thesis assumption breaks. This is the diagnostic the monitoring tools never had.
- 05 / 05
Surface
When a prior decision stops being correct, you find out.
When conditions change enough that the original IC decision is no longer defensible, Capital Refinery surfaces it — with a decision validity score, the assumptions that broke, and how long the team has been operating in the gap. Re-underwrite, take action, or escalate. The window to act has not already closed.
Three engineering choices that show up in the workflow.
Decision integrity is not a UX layer over a normal monitoring tool. It requires a particular extraction model, a particular data model, and a particular feedback loop. We made all three deliberately.
Deterministic-first extraction
Deterministic parsing is the brain. The local LLM is a thin adjudication layer.
Three-pass kernel: regex sweepers identify candidates, deterministic constructors assemble the structured figures, and a small local model adjudicates conflicts. Every figure has a method, a candidate ID, and a provenance trail. There are no hallucinated KPIs because the LLM never invents one — it only chooses between candidates the deterministic layer already produced.
Live decision validity
Every decision is testable, all the time.
The thesis, the assumptions, and the conditions are all structured at IC. As operator data flows in, every assumption is re-tested against the latest values. Decision validity is a live score on every position — not a quarterly check-in from a separate monitoring tool that does not know what the IC decision was.
Closed operating loop
Accounting → signals → variance → action → outcome → next cycle.
Data ingestion is not the goal. The closed loop is. Variance is escalated to the right person on the team. Decisions and overrides are recorded with their reasoning. The next cycle starts informed by what the last cycle learned. The IC record stays alive, and so does the team's institutional memory of why they did what they did.
See it on a deal from your portfolio.
No demo data. We work from your actual diligence pack and show you, on one of your live positions, where the decision validity window is closing.