Capital Refinery
Decision integrity for private markets

Know when your last decision stops being correct.

Capital Refinery is the system of record for investment decisions. It carries the thesis, the assumptions, and the conditions from underwriting through monitoring — and surfaces when a prior IC decision is no longer defensible, before the exposure compounds.

Decision validity window
Position #4127
T0T+12moT+18mo
IC approves
Thesis live, conditions held
Conditions shift
Two assumptions invalidated
No longer defensible
Time to consequence: 90d
Capital Refinery surfaces the moment your prior IC decision stops being correct — and how long the team has been operating in the gap.
DRIFT · 142d
What it does

Three things your current stack does not do.

Market data, CRMs, and accounting systems each handle one slice of the workflow. None of them governs the decision after it is made.

01 / 03

Document-to-KPI extraction

Deterministic-first parsing, not a chat window over your files.

CIMs, financials, and credit agreements parsed into a structured investment record with full provenance — every figure traceable back to the page it came from.

02 / 03

Scenario stress and Monte Carlo

A live diagnostic on positions you actually hold.

Shock packs propagate through your model. Breach probability and time-to-consequence ranking. Not a static download; a continuous test of whether the thesis still holds.

03 / 03

Decision validity tracking

The IC record stays alive after the deal closes.

When conditions change, Capital Refinery surfaces which prior decisions are no longer defensible — and how long the team has been operating on a thesis that no longer holds.

The problem

The investment story dies at close.

The diligence pack ages out. The IC memo lives in a shared drive. The monitoring tool tracks today's KPIs but does not connect them back to the entry assumptions. By the time the breach is visible, the time to act has already passed.

What teams think they have
What actually happens
01A documented investment thesis the committee can revisit.
An aging memo in a shared drive nobody opens after Q+1.
02Diligence intelligence that informed the decision.
An archived data room nobody reopens — and AI tools that lose context the moment the deal closes.
03A monitoring dashboard that tells you when something is wrong.
Today's KPIs with no link back to entry assumptions or the thesis they invalidate.
04An IC record of what was decided and why.
A CRM marked 'closed' and a slide deck rebuilt from scratch every quarter.
05Time to react when conditions change.
A breach already visible by the time the team notices the gap.

Bain's 2025 Global Private Equity Report documents $3.6 trillion in unrealized value sitting on GP balance sheets. FundCount and Standard Metrics describe IC and board materials as a quarterly reconstruction exercise. The category we are building did not exist a year ago.

See it on a deal from your portfolio.

No demo data. We work from your actual diligence pack and show you, on one of your live positions, where the decision validity window is closing.